The following introduction was written in 1998, when the results were first made public. It's mostly good enough to leave alone. Be sure to visit the legal site as well.
There are so many numbers guys out there who think they know the secret, why would we want another one? The only real reason is for the fun of it. Since they can't all be right, and no one is going to be all right, I might as well throw my hat into the ring.
Let me say right now that my first interest is NCAA Division I basketball and everything else in this site branches off from there. So there's no confusion about why you can't find what you're looking for. If it's not here, or there's no useful information, remember that I am just starting this and I probably haven't gotten to it yet. Please be patient.
Further, as a Weber State Wildcat fan, I used to feel that the major polls only considered already recognized schools and the smaller schools were just ignored. (How else do you explain Weber being the only 20-win Division I team not invited to post-season play in 1996?) My rankings are intended to consider every team equally without regard to popularity, television appearances, location, endowment, big name coaches, etc. What I have noticed in the short time that I have worked on my base model is that my results tend to agree well enough with those of the major polls to rule out significant favoritism. It's a hard pill to swallow.
The techniques used here are similar to those used by Kenneth Massey. The results, therefore are often very similar. Ken's method is a little more complicated than mine. We both begin with the assumption that each team should score a certain number of points (offense) and stop an opponent from scoring a different number of points (defense). (I was na�ve enough to think I was the only one to figure this out until I read Ken's explanation.) The combination of offense, defense, home court advantage, and statistical error results in an expected score for every game. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but Ken seems to have incorporated a way of allowing for Rick Majerus playing his third string against High Point. I'm still working on that, but don't expect any changes to the system before the 1999 NBA playoffs.
The indices contained in this site are the result of techniques developed during years of studying statistics at the University of Utah, and applying them to various sporting programs. They are meant only for entertainment use. The author claims no further authority on the subject of sports statistics than has been gained through years of being a fan. (I may not be able to play anything well, but I'm really good at watching!) Any use of the information contained herin for commercial purposes without the express written consent of the author is strictly forbidden. The author is not responsible for any liability resulting from unauthorized use of any information contained within this web site.
Finally, excuse the simplicity of the web design for this page. You've got to remember I'm just a numbers guy.